Planet at “very high risk” for extreme warming, per leaked UN report; every 5-year delay matters

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Mercedes-Benz SL-Class stalls in Maryland flash flood

Mercedes-Benz SL-Class stalls in Maryland flash flood

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The processes of climate change don’t care about politics. Or economics. Or public sentiment about science.

Last December, an analysis showed the most accurate climate-science models to date predicted the worst effects in future years.

Now, two more grim assessments have arrived.

DON’T MISS: Most-accurate climate-change models suggest worst effects on global weather

A draft prepared by a United Nations panel, to the media, says the has a very of passing the 1.5-degree C temperature increase by 2040 that scientists say is the limit before dire effects are seen

The 31-page draft of the long-awaited U.N. report’s conclusions was published two weeks ago by the website ClimateHome.

A spokesperson for the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change cautioned that the draft conclusions were preliminary.

Global carbon dioxide emissions, 1850-2030 [CO2 Information Analysis Center, World Energy Outlook]

Global carbon dioxide emissions, 1850-2030 [CO2 Information Analysis Center, World Energy Outlook]

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The leaked summary suggests that it would be extremely difficult to prevent the earth from crossing a temperature increase of 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) in little more than two decades.

The earth has already warmed more than 1 degree C, scientists calculate, caused by the effects of 200-plus years of carbon-dioxide emissions to date by human activities, largely the combustion of fossil fuels.

Planetary has altered weather patterns and boosted the number of “once-in-a-generation” or “once-in-a-century” weather events.

CHECK OUT: Earth continues to warm, fast; is climate change lost in political turmoil?

The U.N. draft report suggests the predicted temperature rise could be halted or even reversed if billions of tons of carbon dioxide could somehow be removed from the atmosphere.

But at the scale that would be required to reduce the concentration of atmospheric carbon in a meaningful way, it cautioned, that prospect remains extremely difficult.

Additional research published in Nature Communications and described Tuesday by The Washington Post calculates that for every five years of inaction on meaningful reductions in carbon emissions, ocean levels could rise an additional 8 inches by the year 2300.

Tesla electric cars on exhibit outside UConn Conference on Climate, Carbon & Cars, Apr 2017

Tesla electric cars on exhibit outside UConn Conference on Climate, Carbon & Cars, Apr 2017

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The study assumes that the world will achieve the carbon-reduction goals agreed to in the Paris Climate Treaty signed in late 2016.

If that happens—and so far the signatories, essentially every nation on earth, are falling short—carbon emissions must peak sometime between 2020 and 2035, and then decline rapidly.

For every five years of in that emission peak (2025 to 2030, say), the faster carbon emitted must decline thereafter to avoid catastrophic results.

And for each of those five-year delays, the study concluded, the middle-range projection of sea levels in 2300 rose by 20 cm (8 inches).

Green Car Reports respectfully reminds its readers that the scientific validity of climate change is not a topic for debate in our comments. We ask that any comments by climate-change denialists be flagged for moderation. We also ask that political discussions be restricted to the topic of the article they follow. Thank you in advance for helping us keep our comments on topic, civil, respectful, family-friendly, and fact-based.



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